Backcasting Brexit: a first attempt.

[adwelly]

 Backcasting is a term from the currently fashionable field of Machine Learning. It simply means presenting your algorithm with some historical data and seeing if it capable of predicting the rest of the story. I’m trying my hand at the same thing using the techniques of mundane astrology. I’m re-examining some old charts to see if I can spot the signs that would have told me what was going to happen.

 There’s a danger of applying too much hindsight to these situations but I’ll try and look for signs that both agree and disagree with the outcome. Apart from Brexit I hope to look at the Iraq Wars, the Falklands War, the Vietnam War, the arrival of Kennedy, Nixon, Donald Trump, Margaret Thatcher, and Tony Blair on the international scene, then perhaps the First World War and back into the past. I’m open to other suggestions although my historical interests mainly lie with the West.

 Introduction

 I’m starting with Aries Ingress London 2016. The context is that Prime Minister Cameron has recently won an election with a majority making him the leader of a Conservative majority government since 1992. He has promised a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU in his manifesto, and followed through with that promise – although he was not obliged to. Possibly he was emboldened by his desire to settle the issue once and for all and by his success in the Scottish Referendum of 2014. The Brexit referendum will take place on the 23rd June 2016. There was an official Remain campaign headed by David Cameron, an official Leave campaign headed by Boris Johnson and an unofficial Leave campaign headed by Nigel Farage – who had too many enemies in the establishment to win official status.

 Here’s the chart:

It has the fixed sign of Aquarius rising so its influence will last until March 20, 2017.

The feature that jumps right out is the green triangle of three trines, I didn’t know the name for this when I first saw it and mentally tagged it as a meta-trine (meta means x of x, so meta data is data about data for example). It turns out that the usual name is a Grand Trine. Three planets in support of each other. Such a situation must be unusual and my impression is that it must represent some significant positive force for the year ahead – but what exactly is that positive force and will it impact the referendum for Leave or Remain as the two sides dubbed themselves?

 The second feature is that both Pisces and Virgo are intercepted signs. Planets in these regions will not be able to express themselves fully. This is significant in this chart.

 Finally, we have the ominous presence of Mars in the ninth house Saturn in the tenth house.

 

Analysis

 The Sun represents the head of the government – David Cameron in this case. It has a supporting trine with Mars but is otherwise unaided. On the other hand there appear to be no detriments either.

 The Moon represents that part of the public able to take part in politics, the PMC or establishment. In the case of Brexit there was a considerable majority that supported Remain side. It is peregrine but is found in an angular house and benefits from a trine with Uranus (the planet of significant individuals and activists) and a trine with Saturn (the planet of small towns and the countryside). However it is inconjunct with Mercury - the sign of communication.

 Mercury is the planet representing communications, the chattering classes (those who work for the magazines, papers, and the BBC?) and significantly Mercury is the classical god that protected travellers. The question of Immigration became a significant talking point as one of the two Leave campaigns made it a central issue during the debates of the year. Mercury is in a poor state in this chart, in its fall in Pisces, in an intercepted sign, and inconjunct (as sign of frustration) with the Moon. It is also very close the Sun (less than 4 degrees) and so it might be considered Combust. This is a point I am unsure about.

 Venus represents the point of view of women, she is in her Exaltation in Pisces but Pisces is intercepted preventing the full expression of her powers. She is square with Mars to her detriment.

 Mars represents the votes of men and also conflict. He is the planet closest to the Midheaven and gains strength from that, and a trine with the sun. However he is square to Venus.

 Jupiter is the planet of big business and money. It is in a poor state being in an intercepted sign and suffering from a square with Saturn and inconjunct with Uranus.

 Saturn is the planet representing small town and the countryside. He is peregrine but benefits from being in the grand trine with the Moon and Uranus.

 Uranus is the planet of political activists and significant individuals. He benefits from being part of the grand trine with the Moon and Saturn.

 Neptune is the planet of mass movements and unity. He is in his rulership of Pisces but Pisces is intercepted in this chart

 The first house is the house of the ordinary people. Aquarius is on the cusp and it is therefore ruled by Uranus - political activists and significant individuals. I think this can be usefully interpreted as the impact of Nigel Farage, the independent politician and long term anti-EU campaigner getting a good deal of influence during the campaign with his involvement in the unofficial Leave campaign. Scarcely anyone in either the Remain or the official Leave campaigns seemed to get as much airtime.

 The second house is the house of national economy. It has Aries on its cusp and is therefore ruled by Mars. Mars is in a fairly good state in this chart and so the economy was largely unaffected by the referendum or it’s outcome.

 The third house is the house of transport, communication, and the media. It has Taurus on it’s cusp and is therefore ruled by Venus. Venus is in an intercepted house and therefore unable to act.

 The fourth house is the house of resource industries. It has Gemini on the cusp and is therefore ruled by Mercury. This predicts a poor year for mining and agriculture. Agriculture certainly benefited from the Common Agricultural Payment policy and the replacement UK scheme is unlikely to be so generous in the long term so this prediction appears to hold at least for farming.

 The fifth house is the house of gambling, travel for pleasure, sports, and entertainment. Pisces is also on the cusp here, mercury rules and this area is also in for a bad time. Loss of the right of freedom of movement has had a disproportionate impact on UK concerts and musicians who made much of their income in Europe. Acting has had a similar problem and the days when professional players of sports could simply move to a European club (and vice versa) is now lost.

 The sixth house is the house of public health. Cancer is on the cusp and this house is therefore ruled by the Moon. The moon is in a reasonable state in this chart and there were no significant public health situations during this period.

 The seventh house is the house of foreign affairs (excluding trade). Leo is on the cusp and this is therefore ruled by the Sun. The Sun’s condition is adequate with a supporting trine from Mars. This suggests that relations will be at least cordial and suggests that in the matter of Brexit Cameron will get the Remain result he wanted. As we all know – this didn’t happen. The seventh house also contains Jupiter the planet of big business (definitely on the side of Remain) in an intercepted sign and therefore unable to promote his side of the argument.

 The eighth house is the house of foreign trade. It has Libra on the cusp and is therefore ruled by intercepted Venus with a square to Mars. This suggests that foreign trade – a significant part of the EU offering will be badly affected.

 The ninth house is the house of higher things such as the courts, establishment religion, universities, and (oddly) air travel. It has Scorpio on its cusp and is therefore ruled by Mars. Mars is in this house and in his rulership, close to the midheaven. He is only afflicted by his square to Venus. This suggests conflict with the courts, universities, and religion playing a part. Air travel is also likely to see some conflict. All these institutions played a significant and noisy part, before, during and after the referendum. H.S Green says that Mars in the ninth house is an indicator of some “Active Forward Movement” and “Foreign and colonial trade is likely to suffer, and some dispute arise out of it.” Raphael is similarly grim suggesting “troubles in colonial affairs and affects their trade and commerce”

 The tenth house is the house of government, but not the head of that government. The government was strongly remain throughout the campaign going as far as to spend 9 million pounds sending a leaflet to every household I the United Kingdom describing how bad it would be to leave the EU. This house has Sagittarius on its cusp and is therefore ruled by Neptune (mass movements and unity), but Neptune is intercepted. This house contains also contains Saturn. H.S. Green believes that the impact depends on whether or not Saturn is afflicted but Raphael is clear that this is a disastrous sign for “government, Prominent people, and those in Authority,” under all circumstances. Given his comments on the 1939 Aries Ingress London I believe JMG takes this view as well.

 The eleventh house is the lower branch of government, in the Uk’s case, the House of Commons. This also has Sagittarius on the cusp and is ruled by an intercepted Neptune. During this period, the commons showed very little unity of purpose.

 Finally the twelfth house is the house of Institutions. It has Capricorn on the cusp and is therefore ruled by a Saturn that benefits from the grand trine. Throughout the year, the institutions of Britain hold up fairly well. There’s no suggestion that the referendum formal procedures were anything other than fair although the campaigns were bitterly fought over.

Synthesis

 This is quite a lot of information. It seems to broadly trend in one direction however. The Grand Trine suggests some unusual force is at play consisting of notable activists, and feeling in the small towns and rural parts of the country. This is reinforced by the establishment, and the absurd claims of ‘Project Fear’ where there was an attempt to scare people into voting Remain that backfired badly. If we go round the signs, the interception of Neptune (unity) and Mercury (travellers and immigrants) along with Jupiter (big business) points to Leave.

Then we have the houses; the fifth house suggests problems for the entertainment and sports industries The eighth, to problems in foreign trade, the ninth contains Mars which strongly suggests an active change and disputes in foreign trade. The EU was initially a trading organisation and much of the discussion subsequent to Brexit has been about how trade will be handled in the future. Obviously it’s not going to be a simple as it was in the last 20 years. Finally, the tenth contains Saturn – widely regarded as a disaster for an obviously Remain Prime Minister. In fact Cameron had resigned by July 2016.

 Only the seventh house suggests cordial relations with foreign powers. This could broadly be interpreted as a sign for Remain but it could also simply mean that all the parties involved kept talking (which they did) rather than some kind of true conflict.

 

Coming up

 Cancer Ingress London 2016: Saints and Angels preserve us!!

 

Notes:

 The MC angle is missing. I will fix that.

 Is Mercury combust? Answers on a postcard.

 Just how frequent are Grand Trines in the last 200 years?

 Is H.S. Green right when he thinks only afflicted Saturns in the tenth are evil, or does Raphael’s view that Saturn in the tenth is always a bad sign for a government hold?